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Edge 3: TE Pivot After Kraft — Usage > Box Score
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Edge 3: TE Pivot After Kraft — Usage > Box Score
Category: Fantasy Football Edge Analysis; Date: 11/06/2025
| Data summary: Tucker Kraft’s torn ACL ends his season, elevating Luke Musgrave into a potential primary role that must be validated by routes/AYPRR thresholds before streaming | [DATA_NEEDED] Metrics To finalize Musgrave’s Edge: Routes % (Weeks 1–9) AYPRR (Weeks 1–9) Red‑zone looks (RZ) Targets per route run (TPRR) 👉 Obtain via FantasyLife Utilization logs and advanced analytics providers (Sumersports, FantasyPros). These confirm whether Musgrave’s role is strong enough to stream. |
| Confidence band: Low Confidence — Stream only if multiple usage triggers align | Risk levels: High: Multiple stable triggers (FP Friday + gold routes + favorable total). Medium: One primary trigger secured. Low: Contingent alignment only. |
✅ Action Guidance
Do This:
- Do This: Stream Musgrave only if Sunday AM confirms routes ≥65%, AYPRR ≥0.9, and ≥2 RZ looks.
- Else: Fall back to Rankings tiers and avoid chasing box score lines.
Scenarios:
FP Friday: Narrows uncertainty; usage more reliable.
LP Friday: Sustains volatility; monitor closely.
DNP Friday: Expands downside; fade.
👉 Always re‑check game totals and inactives 90 minutes pre‑kick to confirm environment and availability.
Interpretation & Next Steps
This Edge outlines when and why the player is a recommended start/sit based on practice status, usage metrics, and game context.
[DATA_NEEDED] markers show where specific stats (routes %, targets, red‑zone looks, aDOT, AYPRR, etc.) should be filled in from trusted sources like FantasyLife, Sumersports, or your own charting.
If you have the data: plug it in to confirm the base/optimistic/pessimistic scenarios.
If you don’t yet: wait for Friday practice reports and update Sunday morning if needed.
Action step: follow the “Do This” guidance once the key thresholds are confirmed (e.g., full practice Friday, ≥70% routes, ≥2 red‑zone looks).
👉 In short: treat [DATA_NEEDED] as a reminder to verify usage stats, then apply the scenario guidance to make a confident, auditable lineup decision.
🔄 Crossover: Weekly Trade Discipline
Mirror lineup discipline with trade discipline:
- Review open trades/counters impacting Sunday starters.
- Set 24‑hour reply deadlines; cancel idle offers 90 minutes pre‑kick.
- Validate ≥+8 projected delta with Week 10 Rankings; abort at <+6.
- Cross‑check waivers vs. trade goals to avoid redundancy.
- Archive dead threads by Saturday noon to protect Sunday focus.
👉 Heads‑up: Checking back on Friday PM will reveal the key thresholds (practice status, route share, red‑zone looks) that determine whether this Edge is a confident start or needs to be re‑tiered.
