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Edge 2: RB Committee Clarity — Rico Dowdle and the pass‑down floor
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Edge 2: RB Committee Clarity — Rico Dowdle and the pass‑down floor
Category: Fantasy Football Edge Analysis; Date: 11/07/2025
| Data summary: Dowdle missed Wednesday (quad) and returned limited Thursday, with team noting they’re working to get him ready—Friday will determine start viability and usage. | [DATA_NEEDED]: Snap% (Weeks 8–9), rush share%, targets, GL carries, 2‑minute usage%, pass‑down % (L2G); how to obtain: FantasyLife Utilization and play‑by‑play splits |
| Confidence band: Medium Confidence — Start only if FP Friday and snap ≥55% with pass‑down ≥50%. | Risk: If limited/DNP Friday or pass‑down role shrinks, his floor collapses in PPR formats. |
✅ Action Guidance
Do This:
- Do This: Start Rico Dowdle in 12‑team PPR only if FP Friday and confirmed snap ≥55% with pass‑down ≥50% by Friday 4 pm local.
- Otherwise: Fade him and re‑tier Sunday AM based on updated injury reports and utilization data.
Scenarios:
Base: FP Friday; snap 55–65%; 12–16 touches; 3–5 targets; floor via pass‑down work.
Optimistic: FP Friday; snap ≥70%; GL plus pass‑down role consolidated; 18+ touches with TD path.
Pessimistic: LP/DNP Friday; pass‑down % <40%; <10 touches; protect floor and bench.
Interpretation & Next Steps
This Edge outlines when and why Dowdle is a recommended start/sit based on practice status, usage metrics, and game context.
[DATA_NEEDED] markers show where specific stats must be filled in from trusted sources.
If you have the data: plug it in to confirm base/optimistic/pessimistic scenarios.
If not yet: wait for Friday practice reports and update Sunday morning.
Heads‑up: Checking back Friday reveals the key thresholds (practice status, snap %, pass‑down %) that determine whether this Edge is a confident start or needs to be re‑tiered.
👉 In short: Dowdle is a medium‑confidence start, contingent on Friday’s practice and usage metrics. Treat him as a floor play in PPR if his pass‑down role holds; otherwise, pivot.
👉 [DATA_NEEDED]: treat [DATA_NEEDED] as a reminder to verify usage stats, then apply the scenario guidance to make a confident, auditable lineup decision.
👉 Heads‑up: Checking back on Friday PM will reveal the key thresholds (practice status, route share, red‑zone looks) that determine whether this Edge is a confident start or needs to be re‑tiered.
