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Fantasy Football Strategy Systems
Edge 1: WR Gold Override — Puka Nacua at 49ers
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Edge 1: WR Gold Override — Puka Nacua at 49ers
Category: Fantasy Football Edge Analysis; Date: 11/06/2025
| Data summary: Nacua practiced fully Thursday and is “looking good” for Week 10 per team and beat reports, with Rams–49ers lined around 49.5, a top‑tier total that lifts WR ceilings. | [DATA_NEEDED]: Routes% Week 9 and last 3 weeks; obtain via FantasyLife Utilization Game Log/Season Stats. |
| Confidence band: High — FP Friday plus gold routes history and a top game total justify an assertive start in 12‑team PPR. | [DATA_NEEDED]: RZ looks, aDOT, AYPRR; obtain via your charting or trusted analytics provider to populate visuals and targets. |
✅ Action Guidance
Do This:
- Start Nacua in 12‑team PPR if he logs a full practice Friday and routes ≥70% (gold) with ≥2 red zone looks by Friday 4 pm local.
- If not, pivot to Rankings Sunday AM (i.e., downgrade him depending on late practice/injury news).
Scenarios:
Base: routes 70–75%; 8–10 targets; 2–3 RZ looks; AYPRR 1.0–1.2 in a ~49.5 total.
Optimistic: routes ≥75%; ≥3 RZ looks; AYPRR ≥1.2 with total stable in top tier.
Pessimistic: LP/DNP Friday; routes <65%; <6 targets; downgrade if total drops materially.
Interpretation & Next Steps
This Edge outlines when and why the player is a recommended start/sit based on practice status, usage metrics, and game context.
[DATA_NEEDED] markers show where specific stats (routes %, targets, red‑zone looks, aDOT, AYPRR, etc.) should be filled in from trusted sources like FantasyLife, Sumersports, or your own charting.
If you have the data: plug it in to confirm the base/optimistic/pessimistic scenarios.
If you don’t yet: wait for Friday practice reports and update Sunday morning if needed.
Action step: follow the “Do This” guidance once the key thresholds are confirmed (e.g., full practice Friday, ≥70% routes, ≥2 red‑zone looks).
👉 In short: treat [DATA_NEEDED] as a reminder to verify usage stats, then apply the scenario guidance to make a confident, auditable lineup decision.
👉 Heads‑up: Checking back on Friday PM will reveal the key thresholds (practice status, route share, red‑zone looks) that determine whether this Edge is a confident start or needs to be re‑tiered.
